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In August 2023, Scott Aaronson and I reported the results of testing GPT4 with the Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins over a collection of 105 original high-school level and college-level science and math problems (Davis and Aaronson, 2023). In September 2024, I tested the recently released model GPT-4o1-preview on the same collection. Overall I found that performance had significantly improved, but was still considerably short of perfect. In particular, problems that involve spatial reasoning are often stumbling blocks. On September 12, OpenAI (2024) released two preliminary versions, "ChatGPT-o1-preview" and "ChatGPT-o1-mini" of a forthcoming product "ChatGPT-o1".

When performing tasks like automatic speech recognition or spoken language understanding for a given utterance, access to preceding text or audio provides contextual information can improve performance. Considering the recent advances in generative large language models (LLM), we hypothesize that an LLM could generate useful context information using the preceding text. With appropriate prompts, LLM could generate a prediction of the next sentence or abstractive text like titles or topics. In this paper, we study the use of LLM-generated context information and propose an approach to distill the generated information during fine-tuning of self-supervised speech models, which we refer to as generative context-aware fine-tuning. This approach allows the fine-tuned model to make improved predictions without access to the true surrounding segments or to the LLM at inference time, while requiring only a very small additional context module. We evaluate the proposed approach using the SLUE and Libri-light benchmarks for several downstream tasks: automatic speech recognition, named entity recognition, and sentiment analysis. The results show that generative context-aware fine-tuning outperforms a context injection fine-tuning approach that accesses the ground-truth previous text, and is competitive with a generative context injection fine-tuning approach that requires the LLM at inference time.

Our test sets were too small and too haphazard to support statistically valid conclusions, but they were suggestive of a number of conclusions. We summarize these here, and discuss them at greater length in section 7. Over the kinds of problems tested, GPT-4 with either plug-in is significantly stronger than GPT-4 by itself, or, almost certainly, than any AI that existed a year ago. However it is still far from reliable; it often outputs a wrong answer or fails to output any answer. In terms of overall score, we would judge that these systems performs on the level of a middling undergraduate student. However, their capacities and weaknesses do not align with a human student; the systems solve some problems that even capable students would find challenging, whereas they fail on some problems that even middling high school students would find easy.

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (TSF) focuses on the prediction of future values based on historical context. In these problems, dependent variables provide additional information or early warning signs of changes in future behavior. State-of-the-art forecasting models rely on neural attention between timesteps. This allows for temporal learning but fails to consider distinct spatial relationships between variables. This paper addresses the problem by translating multivariate TSF into a novel spatiotemporal sequence formulation where each input token represents the value of a single variable at a given timestep. Long-Range Transformers can then learn interactions between space, time, and value information jointly along this extended sequence. Our method, which we call Spacetimeformer, scales to high dimensional forecasting problems dominated by Graph Neural Networks that rely on predefined variable graphs. We achieve competitive results on benchmarks from traffic forecasting to electricity demand and weather prediction while learning spatial and temporal relationships purely from data.

When collecting item ratings from human judges, it can be difficult to measure and enforce data quality due to task subjectivity and lack of transparency into how judges make each rating decision. To address this, we investigate asking judges to provide a specific form of rationale supporting each rating decision. We evaluate this approach on an information retrieval task in which human judges rate the relevance of Web pages for different search topics. Cost-benefit analysis over 10,000 judgments collected on Amazon's Mechanical Turk suggests a win-win. Firstly, rationales yield a multitude of benefits: more reliable judgments, greater transparency for evaluating both human raters and their judgments, reduced need for expert gold, the opportunity for dual-supervision from ratings and rationales, and added value from the rationales themselves. Secondly, once experienced in the task, crowd workers provide rationales with almost no increase in task completion time. Consequently, we can realize the above benefits with minimal additional cost.

August marks the start of the US Open tennis tournament and the kick-off of the Fantasy Football season. And while tennis and fantasy football have millions of fans, few of them likely know that behind the scenes, cutting edge technologies including artificial intelligence, data analytics, and cloud computing are changing the game. The technology company has a decades-long history of delivering next-generation digital experiences for some of the world's most important sporting events, including the US Open, Wimbledon and The Masters, to name a few. And the company is now working with digital sports, like Fantasy Football, too. Noah Syken, who is responsible for leading IBM's sports and entertainment strategy and partnerships, shares more about the work IBM is doing with sports including how new technologies are impacting the fan experience, examples of IBM's partnerships with major sporting events, and the future of sports, as IBM sees it.

Constrained counting and sampling are two fundamental problems in Computer Science with numerous applications, including network reliability, privacy, probabilistic reasoning, and constrained-random verification. In constrained counting, the task is to compute the total weight, subject to a given weighting function, of the set of solutions of the given constraints. In constrained sampling, the task is to sample randomly, subject to a given weighting function, from the set of solutions to a set of given constraints. Consequently, constrained counting and sampling have been subject to intense theoretical and empirical investigations over the years. Prior work, however, offered either heuristic techniques with poor guarantees of accuracy or approaches with proven guarantees but poor performance in practice. In this thesis, we introduce a novel hashing-based algorithmic framework for constrained sampling and counting that combines the classical algorithmic technique of universal hashing with the dramatic progress made in combinatorial reasoning tools, in particular, SAT and SMT, over the past two decades. The resulting frameworks for counting (ApproxMC2) and sampling (UniGen) can handle formulas with up to million variables representing a significant boost up from the prior state of the art tools' capability to handle few hundreds of variables. If the initial set of constraints is expressed as Disjunctive Normal Form (DNF), ApproxMC is the only known Fully Polynomial Randomized Approximation Scheme (FPRAS) that does not involve Monte Carlo steps. By exploiting the connection between definability of formulas and variance of the distribution of solutions in a cell defined by 3-universal hash functions, we introduced an algorithmic technique, MIS, that reduced the size of XOR constraints employed in the underlying universal hash functions by as much as two orders of magnitude.

Modern society is increasingly reliant on the functionality of infrastructure facilities and utility services. Consequently, there has been surge of interest in the problem of quantification of system reliability, which is known to be #P-complete. Reliability also contributes to the resilience of systems, so as to effectively make them bounce back after contingencies. Despite diverse progress, most techniques to estimate system reliability and resilience remain computationally expensive. In this paper, we investigate how recent advances in hashing-based approaches to counting can be exploited to improve computational techniques for system reliability.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel framework, RelNet, that reduces the problem of computing reliability for a given network to counting the number of satisfying assignments of a Σ 1 1 formula, which is amenable to recent hashing-based techniques developed for counting satisfying assignments of SAT formula. We then apply RelNet to ten real world power-transmission grids across different cities in the U.S. and are able to obtain, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretically sound a priori estimates of reliability between several pairs of nodes of interest. Such estimates will help managing uncertainty and support rational decision making for community resilience.

We study convex stochastic optimization problems where a noisy objective function value is observed after a decision is made. There are many stochastic optimization problems whose behavior depends on an exogenous state variable which affects the shape of the objective function. Currently, there is no general purpose algorithm to solve this class of problems. We use nonparametric density estimation for the joint distribution of state-outcome pairs to create weights for previous observations. The weights effectively group similar states. Those similar to the current state are used to create a convex, deterministic approximation of the objective function. We propose two solution methods that depend on the problem characteristics: function-based and gradient-based optimization. We offer two weighting schemes, kernel based weights and Dirichlet process based weights, for use with the solution methods. The weights and solution methods are tested on a synthetic multi-product newsvendor problem and the hour ahead wind commitment problem. Our results show Dirichlet process weights can offer substantial benefits over kernel based weights and, more generally, that nonparametric estimation methods provide good solutions to otherwise intractable problems.